The International Energy Agency (IEA) has defined an ambitious, yet realistic, New Policies Scenario (NPS) for 2040. The NPS factors in the potential effect of international and national policy plans, as well as already announced commitments for tackling energy security and environmental concerns, such as pledges to reduce GHG emissions and phase out subsidies to fossil energy. Unfortunately, the forecast lacks in detail on oil demand for certain products.
Based on the IEA’s projections, EU oil demand could decline by 60%, from 509 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) in 2014 to 314 Mtoe in 2040. Even with this decline, it would still represent over 20% of the EU energy mix in 2040. The evolution of oil demand will depend on the always evolving needs of transport, industry, heating and other uses.