It is very difficult to make accurate projections about our future energy demands. There is a long list of factors and variables that must be considered, making it nearly impossible to reach a consensus on the distribution of the energy mix in the coming decades.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has defined an ambitious, yet realistic, New Policies Scenario (NPS) for 2030. The NPS factors in the potential effect of international and national policy plans, as well as already announced commitments for tackling energy security and environmental concerns, such as pledges to reduce GHG emissions and phase out subsidies to fossil energy. Unfortunately, the forecast lacks in detail on oil demand for certain products.
Based on the IEA’s projections, EU oil demand could decline by 11%, from 681 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) in 2009 to 605 Mtoe in 2030. Even with this decline, it would still represent 30% of the EU energy mix in 2030. The evolution of oil demand will depend on the always evolving needs of transport, industry, heating and other uses.