The demand for transportation fuels is tightly linked to economic growth. Even as the EU continues to progress in reducing the transport sector’s carbon footprint, oil-based fuels will still play an important role. For example, kerosene for air transport, gasoline and diesel for road transport and gasoil and fuel oil for maritime transport all play an important role in maintaining the EU’s standard of living.
The unrestricted movement of people and goods is an essential element to ensuring social welfare and economic competitiveness of the European Union. As the economy begins to recover from the current crisis, the ability for the EU refining industry to meet this increasing demand will be of critical importance.
The projects that the overall use of oil for transportation purposes will decline as the general use of road transportation decreases. This overall trend holds true despite the fact that demand for aviation and shipping energy sources will increase. Even with a slight increase in total energy demand within the transport sector occurring from 2009 to 2030 the overall demand for refined oil products is expected to decrease from 397 to 378 Mtoe. However, that being said, it should be noted that refined oil products will l still represent a major share in the overall mix.
After 2030, the amount of energy required by the transport sector is expected to decline. However, as long as the demand for mobility continues and barring any major modal shifts in transport, this decline depends on efficiency improvements occurring across the entire transport industry. There is a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to making assumptions about the rate of advancement in alternative energies, both technologically and economically. Regardless, all this goes to show that in any scenario, oil is likely to play an on-going role in transport energy.