The refining and fuel manufacturing industry is a strategic foundation of Europe’s energy security, industrial strength and defence readiness: it is not a legacy industry.
Liquid and gaseous fuels will remain essential for aviation, maritime transport, petrochemicals and other hard-to-electrify sectors, while continuing to support parts of road transport through their unmatched energy density, reliability and ease of storage and transport.
Europe’s refining and fuel manufacturing sector underpins critical industrial value chains, supplying energy for transport and defence as well as essential feedstocks for chemicals, construction, agriculture and manufacturing. Yet rising energy costs, carbon pricing, regulatory fragmentation and investment uncertainty are steadily undermining competitiveness and accelerating the risk of permanent refinery closures in Europe.
Failing to recognise refining as a strategic sector would have far-reaching consequences:
- Increased import dependence,
- Greater exposure to price volatility,
- Industrial decline and job losses,
- A slower energy transition.
Once a refinery closes, it is rarely replaced. Building entirely new low-carbon production capacity from scratch would require considerable time, cost and infrastructure. Europe therefore faces a clear choice: transforming and retaining its domestic fuel production capacity, or becoming increasingly reliant on external suppliers.
The most credible path forward is the conversion of existing refineries into low-carbon and renewable fuel hubs. This approach is faster, more cost-effective and more secure than starting a new, while preserving industrial capabilities, strategic autonomy and existing infrastructure. Some reconversions have already taken place across the EU, demonstrating the viability of this pathway and this trend could further accelerate if the right enabling conditions are put in place.
To succeed, Europe needs stable policies, investment certainty and pragmatic regulatory frameworks aligned with energy system realities. The refining and fuel manufacturing sector stands ready to deliver a transition that is economically viable, industrially competitive and geopolitically resilient.
